Google Shopping Ads Show Reverse Crocodile Effect as AI Overviews Expand

New data from 175 billion impressions reveals Shopping ads are experiencing the opposite of what organic search faces: fewer impressions but higher click-through rates as AI Overviews grow.

What was announced

Mike Ryan, data analyst at Smarter Ecommerce (smec), published new research on September 7, 2026, showing that Google Shopping ads are experiencing what he calls a "reverse crocodile effect" in the era of AI Overviews. While organic search publishers have been gaining impressions but losing clicks—a phenomenon widely dubbed the "crocodile effect" or "great decoupling"—Shopping ads are moving in the opposite direction.

The data, drawn from 175 billion impressions across the smec platform between mid-2025 and mid-2026, shows median Shopping ad impressions fell from approximately 1.85 million to 1.4 million per account, a 24% decline. At the same time, median click-through rate (CTR) climbed from 1.20% to nearly 1.55%, a 29% increase.

Background and context

To understand why this matters, you need to understand what's been happening in organic search. Since Google began expanding AI Overviews (formerly known as AI-generated snippets or SGE) across Search results in 2024, publishers have observed a consistent pattern: their pages appear in more searches (impressions rise) but receive fewer clicks. The AI-generated summary at the top of search results answers many queries directly, reducing the need for users to visit the underlying websites.

This phenomenon has been widely documented across the SEO industry. Some call it the "crocodile effect" because the traffic decline resembles a crocodile's jaws closing—slow at first, then accelerating. Others refer to it as the "great decoupling," highlighting how impressions and clicks, which historically moved together, have diverged.

For publishers, this has meant declining organic traffic despite maintaining or even improving their search rankings. For advertisers using Google Shopping ads, however, the dynamic appears to be inverted.

What changed — specific details

Ryan's research provides the first large-scale quantitative evidence of this divergence. The key findings:

• Impressions declined 24%: Median Shopping ad impressions per account dropped from 1.85 million to 1.4 million between mid-2025 and mid-2026.
• CTR increased 29%: Median click-through rate rose from 1.20% to 1.55% over the same period.
• Sample size: The data covers 175 billion impressions across the smec platform, which manages Google Ads for e-commerce clients.

The trend is not a short-term fluctuation. Ryan's chart shows a steady, month-over-month decline in impressions paired with a steady rise in CTR throughout the 12-month period.

Why this is happening — Ryan's theory

Ryan proposes a specific mechanism: Google is strategically deploying AI Overviews for queries where Shopping ads would have lower predicted CTR, in order to preserve ad revenue.

"Google checks the predicted CTR of a given query and serves AIOs preferentially for lower-probability queries in order to preserve revenue," Ryan wrote. "Thus CTR climbs partly due to a shrinking denominator (fewer impressions) and partly due to selection/pruning (higher click propensity)."

In other words, when Google's systems predict that a Shopping ad would perform poorly (low likelihood of clicks), they show an AI Overview instead. When the predicted CTR is high, they show the Shopping ad. This creates a selection effect: the remaining Shopping ad impressions are concentrated on queries where users are more likely to click.

Ryan views this as a transitional strategy. "If true, I'd view this as a bridging strategy," he wrote. "They'll shift the balance from more 'either/or' experiences toward more 'both/and' experiences. This will particularly [be true] as Google launches AI-native formats with higher predicted CTR, and scales the presence of Shopping ads in AIOs."

Impact and implications

For e-commerce advertisers, this dynamic has several implications:

Short-term benefit, long-term uncertainty: The higher CTR means that advertisers who are still receiving Shopping ad impressions are getting more clicks per impression. However, the declining impression volume means fewer total opportunities to appear in front of potential customers.

AI Overviews are not uniformly bad for ads: The common narrative is that AI Overviews harm commercial search by answering queries directly. This data suggests the reality is more nuanced. For Shopping ads specifically, Google appears to be preserving ad revenue by showing ads on high-intent queries and using AI Overviews on lower-intent queries.

The "both/and" future: Ryan's theory suggests Google is moving toward showing both AI Overviews and Shopping ads together, rather than choosing one or the other. Google has already begun testing Shopping ads within AI Overviews and AI Mode. In August 2026, Google announced new travel booking features in AI Mode, including hotel booking and flight price tracking, signaling continued integration of commerce into AI-driven search experiences.

Performance Max and AI Max become more critical: As Google's ad systems become more sophisticated about when to show traditional Shopping ads versus AI-native formats, advertisers need to ensure their feeds and assets are optimized for both. Google's AI Max for Search campaigns, which automatically generates ad variations based on user intent, is likely to become increasingly important.

What remains uncertain

Several questions remain unanswered:

• Is this strategy intentional or emergent? Ryan's theory is plausible, but Google has not publicly confirmed that it strategically deploys AI Overviews based on predicted ad CTR. The pattern could also emerge from other factors, such as changes in user behavior or query mix.
• Will the trend continue? The data covers a 12-month period, but it's unclear whether the impression decline will accelerate, stabilize, or reverse. If Google scales Shopping ads within AI Overviews, impression volume could recover.
• How does this affect different product categories? The aggregate data masks variation across product types. High-consideration purchases (electronics, furniture) may behave differently than impulse buys (accessories, consumables).
• What is the impact on total ad spend efficiency? Higher CTR is positive, but if impression volume continues to decline, advertisers may need to increase bids or expand their product coverage to maintain total clicks.

What to watch next

• Google's official documentation on Shopping ads in AI Overviews: Google has not yet published detailed guidance on how Shopping ads interact with AI Overviews. Any official documentation would clarify the strategic direction.
• AI Mode shopping features: Google is actively expanding commerce capabilities in AI Mode. The travel booking features announced in August 2026 are likely a preview of broader shopping integration.
• Performance reports in Google Ads: Advertisers should monitor their own impression and CTR trends over the next 6-12 months to see if the pattern Ryan documented holds across different accounts and product categories.
• AI-native ad formats: Google is likely testing new ad formats designed specifically for AI Overviews and AI Mode. These could combine the conversational nature of AI responses with commercial intent.

Sources

• Mike Ryan, Smarter Ecommerce. "Here's an odd one. Ever since AIOs launched, publishers have been gaining impressions and losing clicks: the dreaded SEO 'crocodile effect.' For Shopping ads, it's the opposite. But why?" LinkedIn post, September 7, 2026. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mikeryanretail_heres-an-odd-one-ever-since-aios-launched-share-7501641705696436225-4IPi/
• Google. "3 new ways to plan and book travel in Search." Google Blog, August 27, 2026. https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/search/book-travel-ai-mode/
• Google Ads Help. "About AI Max for Search campaigns." https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/14958835

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